2026-07-13

TL;DR

• Genuinely quiet day. Every project rollup is flat-to-up (AT +0.1, AU 0, BR +0.1, DE −0.1, IT +0.5, UK −0.3 Δ1d), top-10 counts are stable across all markets, and OUT/IN churn is balanced (e.g. UK 1 out / 3 in). The long "→OUT" mover list is the usual daily churn, not an event. (confirmed)
• AT "sex graz" cannibalization confirmed but narrow. lend-graz displaced the graz city page for a second day (1→12→10). But the graz page is fully healthy — it holds rank 2-3 for every sibling Graz term (graz sex, sex in graz, privat sex graz, sextreffen graz…). Only the exact string "sex graz" flipped to the thin Lend district child. Real, but one keyword. (confirmed)
• DE "sex krefeld" is the same pattern, day 1. Held /sex/krefeld/ at rank 5-8 all week, then flipped to /huren/krefeld/ and dropped 5→18 today. New watch item; don't act on one day. (confirmed swap, unclear if durable)
• UK city cluster: 07-12's top-3 spike to 180 already reverted to 169 — the 180 was itself a churn peak. Top-10 rock-stable at 317 all week. Confirms the closed "unconfirmed-update churn" verdict. Stragglers colchester (16) and warrington (10) are stable, not deteriorating. (confirmed)
• BR still compounding (75→79 ranked, avg 10.4). IT stable (166 ranked, avg improved 9.2→8.6). (confirmed)

What moved and why

URL swaps are net-neutral in aggregate (confirmed). The briefing lists 101 ranking-URL swaps, which looks alarming. I tested it directly: for keywords ranked both days, swapped-URL keywords moved AT −0.5, DE +0.2, UK +0.4, IT −0.7 (n=3) on average — indistinguishable from, or better than, stable-URL keywords. Google is reshuffling which sibling URL ranks with near-zero net cost. So swaps as a phenomenon are not today's story; only two specific head-term swaps are worth naming.

AT "sex graz" — parent/child cannibalization, confirmed, low impact (confirmed). Yesterday's flip is not a flap: lend-graz has now held the "sex graz" slot two days (12, then 10) while the graz page previously owned it at rank 1-4 all week. I checked the graz page's wider footprint and it's untouched — rank 2-3 for graz sex, sex in graz, privat sex graz, sex privat graz, sextreffen in graz, sexkontakte graz, etc. Live-checked both pages: /at/sex/graz/ is a substantial city page (150 listings) that links to Lend as a district child; /at/sex/lend-graz/ is a thin district page (15 listings) titled "Sex Anzeigen in Lend", ranking for literally nothing except this one borrowed term. So Google is mis-selecting the thin child for the city head term on one exact string. Net damage: a single keyword down ~9 spots. Actionable but minor.

DE "sex krefeld" — same shape, one day old (confirmed swap). /sex/krefeld/ held 5-8 all week, then today Google swapped to /huren/krefeld/ and it dropped 5→18. Identical /sex/-vs-other-section head-term flip to the graz case. One day old — log and watch, don't touch.

UK city cluster — closed case holds (confirmed). Per-day top-3: 168→168→180→169. The 180 I flagged on 07-12 was a one-day churn peak, not a durable recovery; it's back in the 168-169 band today. Top-10 count never left 313-319 the entire week. This is textbook top-3↔top-10 reshuffle with visibility intact — exactly the unconfirmed-update churn we closed it as. colchester sits at 16 (down from 7-8 on 07-11) and warrington at 10; both flat for 3 days, so stable stragglers, not a spreading front.

BR / IT (confirmed). BR added another +4 ranked (75→79), avg holding ~10.4 — the growth curve is still compounding. IT ticked 165→166 ranked with average improving to 8.6, inside its oscillation band; the +0.5 rollup Δ1d is that average tightening, not a breakout.

Investigations

• Are URL swaps hurting? Compared rank deltas for swapped vs stable URLs per market (07-12→07-13). No systematic cost anywhere; DE/UK swaps net positive. Ruled out a cannibalization "event."
• Is the graz flip real or a flap? Two-day URL history + full graz-page footprint + live fetch of both pages. Confirmed: durable so far, mechanism is parent→thin-child, impact is one keyword only.
• UK slide — did 180 stick? Pulled cluster top-3/top-10 by day. 180 reverted to 169; top-10 stable. Confirms churn.
• Churn baseline on the big OUT list. Counted OUT vs IN per market: all balanced (AT 10/11, DE 21/18, BR 14/18, IT 15/16, UK 1/3). The OUT list is baseline churn — no mass-fallout event.
• Dead ends: DE competitor "markt.de 11.1→7.5" jump — on 697 kws so not the small-n denominator artifact, but it's a rival tightening its own average, no correlated erobella loss; nothing to action.

Opportunities

• BR is still the build target. +4 ranked/day and average holding while Google is receptive. Keep pushing internal links into BR city clusters that are newly entering top-100 (18 came in today).
• Reclaim "sex graz" cheaply. The graz city page already dominates all Graz sex terms; only the thin Lend child borrowed the one head string. If it persists, the surgical fix is to keep lend-graz strictly district-scoped (trim the Graz-landmark copy that references the wider city) so it stops competing for "Graz". Low effort, but wait for persistence.

Recommendations

1. Watch, don't touch, the two cannibalization flips. AT "sex graz" (→lend-graz, 2 days) and DE "sex krefeld" (→/huren/krefeld/, 1 day). If sex graz is still on lend-graz in 2-3 more days, de-emphasise the district child for that head term (trim its Graz-wide copy / soften the internal anchor). Single-keyword impact — not urgent.
2. 301 the two 404 profiles (stussy-babe41 → Warragul/AU listing; vera-ragazza10 → Policoro/IT). Standing low-effort item; still free position insurance, not time-sensitive.
3. Nothing else needs a human today. No template edits, no algo-response actions.

Watchlist

Mirrored into watchlist.md: AT "sex graz" cannibalization CONFIRMED (2-day lend-graz displacement, but graz page healthy on all siblings — one-keyword impact). New: DE "sex krefeld" /sex/→/huren/ flip (day 1, watch). UK city-slide closed case holds (180 was a churn peak, reverted to 169; top-10 stable; colchester/warrington stable stragglers). BR still compounding (79 ranked). IT stable (~166). 404s open, not time-sensitive. Churn-baseline, competitor-denominator, and hreflang cases unchanged.